YTD: 62-46-2 +12u
With 272 games down, the real NFL season starts on Saturday. Only 13 games are left to decide the 2022 Super Bowl champion, and it’s important to remember that as the handle inevitably increases, lines are going to be as locked in as they have been all year. Does this mean we go light and let Vegas eat? Of course not. In a couple of weeks, you’ll be wishing you had more games to bet on, so we might as well pick each and every game for the rest of the season. Let’s ride.
(5) Raiders at (4) Bengals, Sat 3:30 PM CT
Spread pick: Raiders +6
The Raiders are an improbable team of destiny and I’m not sure their season ends this weekend. A rainy forecast could slow the Bengals passing attack, but I’m more interested in how a (very) bad offensive line holds up against a dominant 4-man pass rush. Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue will get pressure on Joe Burrow while allowing the secondary to play deep contain. I think this one stays close, and I’d consider the Raiders ML at +190.
Prop: Hunter Renfrow O 5.5 receptions
(6) Patriots at (3) Bills, Sat 7:15 PM CT
Spread pick: Bills -4.5
Don’t let the Week 12 game when Mac Jones threw the ball three times fool you into thinking the Pats can win in a similar way. It’s going to be cold, but not nearly as windy, and I don’t think the Bills have any problem cruising to the divisional round.
Grant’s Prop of the Week: Devin Singletary O 14.5 receiving yards
(7) Eagles at (2) Buccaneers, Sun 12:00 PM CT
Spread pick: Eagles +8
Bet against Tom Brady at your own risk, but I think the league’s best rushing attack (160 yds/game) will keep this within one score. The Bucs are nowhere near full strength, and while they get Leonard Fournette back, the receiving core has been decimated in recent weeks. If the Eagles can chew clock and win the possession battle, I think the defense can manage enough stops to prevent a blowout.
Prop: Jalen Hurts O 16.5 completions
(6) 49ers at (3) Cowboys, Sun 3:30 PM CT
Spread pick: Cowboys -3
The Niners are the most trendy dog of the week, but sharp money continues to back the Boys in Jerry World. I’ve gone back and forth on this one and ultimately decided to take the team that can score at will with the total set at 51. This could also be a good live bet opportunity, but if the Cowboys' offense starts hot, I don’t expect Jimmy G to lead another second-half comeback against one of the best defenses in the league.
Prop: Dalton Schultz O 40.5 rec yards
(7) Steelers at (2) Chiefs, Sun 7:15 PM CT
Total pick: Chiefs 1H TT O 14.5
12.5 is one of the highest postseason spreads in history and don’t really want to touch it. The Chiefs should easily take this one, but I’m worried that if they jump out to a big lead, Andy Reid may feel inclined to close the playbook and never pull away. Containing TJ Watt will be key, but if Mahomes gets enough time to let plays develop, three first-half scores should not be an issue against an offense that is unlikely to sustain many drives.
Grant’s Play of the Week: Under 46.5
(5) Cardinals at (4) Rams, Mon 7:15 PM CT
Total pick: O 49.5
I can see either team taking this, but I don’t think points will be hard to come by. For all the star power on LA’s defense, it has not been playing like a Super Bowl-caliber unit. On the other side, Matt Stafford is under more pressure than perhaps any other playoff QB, and I expect a strong performance.
Prop: Zach Ertz O 5.5 receptions +100
Raiders +6, Renfrow O 5.5 recs
Bills -4.5, Singletary O 14.5 rec yds
Eagles +8, Hurts O 16.5 comps
Cowboys -3, Schultz O 40.5 rec yds
Chiefs 1H O 14.5, U 46.5
Rams/Cards O 49.5, Ertz O 5.5 recs