Fireside 2.1 (https://fireside.fm) The City: Off Campus Blog https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles Fri, 15 Oct 2021 17:00:00 -0400 The City: Off Campus Blog en-us Levi's Weekly College Football Week 7 and NFL Week 5 https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levis-weekly-college-football-week-7-and-nfl-week-5 Fri, 15 Oct 2021 17:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com e362636f-d44c-4558-b823-ab98fe9f0c92 Weekly College Football Week 7 and NFL Week 5 Week 5: (10-6-1, +3.25u) YTD: 36-27-2 (55%)
Note: All CFB and Prop plays are 1u, +money teasers/parlays are .5u.

ALCS Game 1. BOS Chris Sale v. HOU Framber Valdez, 10/15 7:07 PM CT, FOX
Xander Bogaertz O 1.5 Total Bases +145
Jose Altuve O 1.5 Hits +210
BOS Red Sox ML +125

25 Texas v. #12 Oklahoma State (OVER 60.5 -115), 11:00 AM CT, FOX

The Longhorns and Sooners easily got us over last week, and I expect a similar game script in Austin. The Cowboys’ defense ranks third in the Big 12, but true freshman WR Xavior Worthy and QB Casey Thompson have found a real connection. Root for points.

2 Iowa v. Purdue (1H OVER 22 -105), 2:30 PM CT, ABC

The Hawkeyes will be without CB Riley Moss, and we all know the “second-half defense” narrative with this team. WR David Bell is putting together another solid year in the B1G and I’m hoping to see Iowa open up a little bit more than last week.

13 Ole Miss (-2.5) v. Tennessee, 6:30 PM CT, SECN

This feels like a trap line but I’m going to fall for it. The total is set at 82.5 (!!), so points shouldn’t be hard to come by. If this game comes down to the wire, any last-second score likely means a cover.

5 Alabama (-17) v. Mississippi State, 6:00 PM CT, ESPN

Hard to not bet on a hungry Alabama team that now has something to prove to the playoff committee. The last time Mike Leach met Nick Saban, the Tide emerged in a 41-0 victory. Lay the points and remember, it’s still Bama.

DK 50% profit boost five-leg ML favorite parlay: Marshall, Michigan State, Nebraska, Colorado, Iowa State +698

NFL Props
Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 TDs -145
Dan Arnold OVER 35.5 yds -115
Mark Andrews OVER 4.5 recs -165
Ja’Marr Chase ATD +105
Kyler Murray Pass+Rush yds OVER 290.5 -115
CeeDee Lamb OVER 4.5 recs -145
Hunter Renfrow OVER 4.5 recs -145
Ben Roethlisberger OVER 1.5 TDs -135

NFL Spread Picks
JAX Jaguars (+3) vs. MIA Dolphins, 8:30 AM, London
LA Chargers (+2.5) vs. BAL Ravens, Noon
HOU Texans (+10) vs. IND Colts, Noon
DAL Cowboys (-3.5) vs. NE Patriots, 3:25
BUF Bills vs. TEN Titans (OVER 53), MNF

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 6 and NFL Week 5 Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levis-weekly-college-football-week-6-and-nfl-week-5-picks Fri, 08 Oct 2021 13:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com 67731e57-0538-4357-bc4e-11c6e340e75a Levi's Weekly College Football Week 6 and NFL Week 5 Picks Week 4 record: (7-8-1 +.15u) YTD: 26-21-1 (54%)
Note: All CFB and Prop plays are 1u, +money teasers/parlays are .5u.

Had a rough go at it last week but still managed to finish in the green. We’re on to the best CFB slate of the year this week headlined by the biggest game in Kinnick Stadium since 1985. Let’s have a weekend.

3 Iowa (-1.5) vs. #4 Penn State, 3:00 PM CT, FOX -110

I’m tempted to emotionally hedge this game with the PSU moneyline, but I’d rather be able to face myself in the mirror. Iowa’s offense looked dynamic for the first time last week and that defense is approaching an all-time turnover margin. It will be interesting to see who follows Jahan Dotson but Riley Moss and Matt Hankins are both playing at an elite level. Hawks by at least two (or 37, again).

21 Texas vs. #6 Oklahoma (OVER 63.5), 11:00 AM CT, ESPN -110

Had Steve Sarkisian started Casey Thompson over Hudson Card out of camp, we could be talking about an undefeated Longhorns team with real playoff aspirations. Bijan Robinson is averaging over 6 yards/carry, more striking though is the 16.7 yards/reception. Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn caught 10 balls for 104 yards last week and singlehandedly kept that game close. We know what Oklahoma’s offense can do, and I’m expecting another Red River shootout.

9 Michigan (-3) vs. Nebraska, 6:30 PM CT, ABC -110

I’m not sure why Vegas hates the Wolverines but I wont complain. Cade McNamara proved competent through the air last week and this Nebraska defense shouldn’t be in the same conversation as the Badgers. Take the better team and enjoy your Saturday evening.

20 Florida (-24.5 1H) vs. Vanderbilt, 11:00 AM CT, SECN -110

Sometimes you just gotta lay the points when a dangerous offense plays (quite literally) one of the worst P5 teams in a decade.

CFB ML Parlay: Michigan State/Georgia Tech/Wisconsin/USC (+372)
NFL Props Plays
Hunter Renfrow OVER 4.5 recs (-105)
Deebo Samuel OVER 62.5 rec yds (-115)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 51.5 rush yds (-115)
Tom Brady OVER 2.5 pass TDs (+115)
Joe Burrow OVER 270.5 pass yds (-115)
Austin Ekeler OVER 4.5 recs (-125)
Zach Wilson OVER 21.5 comps (-125)
A.J. Brown OVER 4.5 recs (-125)

Chicago Bears (+5) vs. Oakland Raiders, 3:05 PM CT, CBS -110
We’re far enough into the season that spreads are starting to make sense, but I’m not so sure about this one. The Chargers shut down Derek Carr and co. last week and I think that Bill Lazor will keep gradually opening the playbook for Justin Fields. The Raiders have struggled in the play-action game, and that’s arguably been how Fields has found the most success. If Chicago’s O-Line can hold off Maxx Crosby, they have a chance to win this one straight up.

KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (OVER 56), SNF 7:20 PM CT, NBC -110
The Chiefs match up with Buffalo’s defense well, and I think they find a way to cover 2.5 here. That said, their defense has been historically bad through four games. Josh Allen should have no problem moving the ball through the air, and this Chiefs offense has remarkably turned into one of the most efficient units in recent memory. If the Bills stack the box to combat the run, Tyreek Hill is always down there somewhere. If not, CEH will stay hot. I expect both teams to hit the 30-point mark on Sunday night.

GB Packers (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 12:00 PM CT, FOX -110
Joe Burrow has looked good and Ja’Marr Chase is turning out to be everything Bengals fans were hoping for. That won’t matter this week, though. Aaron Rodgers has covered in three straight since that week 1 loss and this feels like it should be closer to five.

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 5 and NFL Week 4 Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levi-s-weekly-college-football-week-5-and-nfl-week-4-picks Fri, 01 Oct 2021 17:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com 096ce4c5-63f1-48c6-8ad5-79f08d1bdba2 *Week 3 Record: (7-5 +1.55 units) YTD: 19-13
*

After a brief hiatus last week, we’re back with some action this weekend kicking off Friday night as the fifth-ranked Hawkeyes travel to College Park to take on the Maryland Terrapins.

Iowa (-160 ML) v. Maryland, 10/1, 7:00 PM CT, FS1

Iowa’s secondary will be tested by Taulia Tagovailoa and a solid Maryland receiving corps. The spread is only three, but this might be closer than some think and may come down to the final drive. I’ll take the juice at -160 instead of worrying about a spread. Hawks by at least one.

Texas (-5) v. TCU, 10/2, 11:00 AM CT, ABC -110

TCU QB Max Duggan has looked slow through three games and the Horned Frogs just got handled at home by rival SMU. The Longhorns are averaging 51.5 points this season, and TCU hasn’t offered much resistance against questionable competition.

4 Michigan (+110) v. Wisconsin, 11:00 AM CT, FOX

It’s not every week you get a top-15 underdog against a quarterback with a 1:6 TD-INT ratio. I honestly don’t understand this line but I’m not going to overthink it. The Wolverines did not look sharp last week but Graham Mertz hasn’t proved he can efficiently generate offense. On top of that, the Michigan D has yet to allow more than 14 points. Go Blue.

2 Ole Miss v. #1 Bama (Under 80), 2:30 PM CT, CBS -110

This total is on track to be the highest closing line of any SEC game in history. I hate to be that guy, but don’t fall for it. Everyone knows Matt Corral wants to drop back 60-70 times, especially Nick Saban. Bama’s defense is suspect, and I’d suspect the Tide to control the pace to keep Lane Kiffin’s offense off the field.

*6-pt teaser: Oklahoma -5, Oregon -2, Notre Dame +7.5 +160
*

*Dog of the Week: Louisville +205 v. Wake Forest
*

NFL Player Props

Kyler Murray OVER 267.5 passing yards -115
Mike Gesicki OVER 3.5 receptions +120
D’Andre Swift OVER 36.5 receiving yards -115
Cooper Kupp OVER 6.5 receptions -145
Tom Brady OVER 2.5 passing TD’s +120
Robby Anderson OVER 48.5 receiving yd -115
Logan Thomas OVER 3.5 receptions -145
Patrick Mahomes OVER 2.5 passing TD’s -115

**NFL Teasers

**

Chiefs -.5, Saints -1, Texans +23 +160
Packers -.5, Bucs -1, Chargers/Raiders O 46 +160

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 3 and NFL Week 2 Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levis-weekly-college-football-week-3-and-nfl-week-2-picks Fri, 17 Sep 2021 13:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com 6870eeb3-b02e-4534-89ce-d380e45e8715 Levi's Weekly Picks Last week: (6-7 +575 hit) YTD: 12-8

College Football Week Three

West Virginia (-2.5) v. Virginia Tech, 11:00 AM -110
I was initially leaning on the Hokies to pull off a road upset, but West Virignia’s defense is the best competition QB Braxton Burmeister will have seen up to this point. VT has rolled through its first two games on the heels of good not great QB play and a suffocating defense. Sharp money has bought this line up from a PK, and WVU looks to get over .500 before a matchup with the third-ranked Sooners next week.

Notre Dame (1H -4) v. Purdue, 1:30 PM -115
ND QB Jack Coan has looked great through two weeks, and I expect him to stay hot. The Boilermakers are a quiet 2-0 thanks to bad competition, but they allowed 124 rush yards to UConn last week. ND’s trio of Coan, RB Kyren Williams and TE Michael Mayer should control possession and cover in the first half.

Iowa v. Kent State (U 56) -115
Your Iowa Hawkeyes are a top-5 team but I think this total is a little high. As good as the defense has been, Iowa’s offense has yet to put together an entire half of solid play. That said, the D has accounted for seven turnovers, leading to 37 points. The team has scored 61 points total. This turnover luck is hardly sustainable, and I don’t expect Kent State to see the endzone more than once.

Auburn v. Penn State (O 52.5) -110
I’m expecting points in Saturday’s most prolific matchup. PSU QB Sean Clifford has been efficient this season, and AUB QB Bo Nix has put up borderline Heisman stats against two very bad teams. Both defenses are strong, but this one should come down to the fourth quarter.

NFL Week 2 Player Props
I got some of these lines earlier in the week, might have moved up by now

Ja’Marr Chase OVER 52.5 rec yards -140
Jameis Winston OVER 226.5 pass yards -115
James O’Shaughnessy OVER 2.5 receptions +105
Jalen Hurts OVER 44.5 rush yards -115
Tyreek Hill longest reception OVER 26.5 -125
Kareem Hunt OVER 15.5 rec yards -110

Can’t Lose Teaser #1 +160
LA Rams +2.5 v. IND Colts
BUF Bills +2.5 v. Miami Dolphins
NE Patriots Even (ML) v. NY Jets

Can’t Lose Teaser #2 +160
ATL Falcons +18.5 v. TB Bucs
ARI Cards +2 v. MIN Vikings
KC Chiefs +2.5 v. BAL Ravens

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 2 and NFL Week 1 Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levi-s-weekly-college-football-week-2-and-nfl-week-1-picks Thu, 09 Sep 2021 22:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com 63b0d76d-d120-47f3-92a0-dc464f41d084 Levi's Weekly Picks Last week: 4-1 (YTD: 6-1)

Off to a great start in college football, but the NFL is a different beast. I’ll be sticking with mostly props in Week 1.

TNF on NBC: TB Buccaneers vs. DAL Cowboys Props

CeeDee Lamb OVER 60.5 receiving yards -115
Mike Evans OVER 4.5 receptions +115
Half Unit: Antonio Brown/CeeDee Lamb Anytime TD SGP +575

CFB Week 2 and NFL Week 1

10 Iowa (ML) vs. #9 Iowa State, 3:30 PM CT +165

I should preface this by saying it has nothing to do with ISU’s game last Saturday against UNI. The Cyclones will be sharper on both sides of the ball, but I don’t think it will matter. If ISU DC John Heacock wants to drop seven guys into coverage, Tyler Goodson and Ivory Kelly-Martin should have some running lanes. Petras and Purdy look to bounce back from subpar openers while the Iowa D is riding high. Under 46 is another option, but Hawks by a milli.

TCU (1H -6.5) vs. California, 2:30 PM CT -115

TCU QB Max Duggan found easy success through the air and on the ground last week against Duquense. The Golden Bears won’t bring much more competition to a strong and experienced TCU squad.

East Carolina (+2) vs. South Carolina, 11:00 AM CT -110

The Pirates opened as three-point dogs before seeing some time as the favorite earlier this week. They are coming off a tough loss to Appalachian State, and South Carolina could be in a let-down spot with grad transfer (and former Cyclone QB) Zeb Noland going on the road in a rivalry game.

NFL Props and Picks

  • SF WR Brandon Aiyuk OVER 3.5 receptions -150 vs. Detroit Lions
  • WFT RB Antonio Gibson OVER 2.5 receptions -120 vs. LA Chargers
  • GB QB Aaron Rodgers UNDER 39.5 pass attempts -115 vs. NO Saints
  • ATL WR Calvin Ridley OVER 78.5 receiving yards -115 vs. PHI Eagles
  • NE WR Jakobi Meyers OVER 3.5 receptions -135 vs. MIA Dolphins

GB Packers (-3.5) vs. NO Saints, 9/12 3:25 PM CT -110

The Packers have covered this number in 4 of their last 5 week ones, and I think they hold that trend here. Even with Jameis Winston starting under center, the Saints offense is not the same without Michael Thomas on the field. Rodgers, Adams, and Jones will challenge any good defense.

KC Chiefs (-5.5) vs. CLE Browns, 9/12 3:25 PM CT -115

This is emotional betting on my end, but I’m confident the Chiefs handle the Browns on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes is insane in September and the Browns have a suspect week one history. The new-look offensive line turned heads in the preseason and appears to have already established chemistry. I expect better ATS performances this season.

ML Parlay : Packers, Bills, 49ers (+158)

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 1 Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levi-s-weekly-college-football-week-1-picks Fri, 03 Sep 2021 12:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com dd8a47ae-1a7c-45a1-a79f-8fcb51af3b48 Weekly Sports Picks By Levi Lorenz Last week: 2-0 (YTD: 2-0)

**#17 Indiana @ #18 Iowa, 2:30 PM CT

Pick: Iowa -4 (-110 DK)**

Hawks by a Million!!! The atmosphere in Kinnick will be insane as RB Tyler Goodson gets upwards of 25 attempts. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr. will make it interesting, but he may struggle getting reacclimated to game-action coming off a season-ending ACL injury. If Iowa’s secondary can limit chunk plays, the Hawks can win this game on the ground.

10 North Carolina @ Virginia Tech, 5:00 PM CT, ESPN

Pick: Virginia Tech +5.5 (-105 DK)

Hokie head coach Justin Fuente hasn’t lived up to the expectations in Blacksburg through two seasons so far, but he gets a chance to give VT its first top-10 win since 2009 on Friday night. UNC QB Sam Howell has been a popular pre-season Heisman pick, but the Tar Heels need to replace three NFL-caliber playmakers. VT returns its top tackler and sack producer to pair with a veteran secondary. With question marks surrounding UNC’s playmaking ability, I like the Hokies defense to keep this within a score.

Stanford @ Kansas State, 11:00 AM CT

Pick: Kansas State -3 (-115 DK)

This game features two power-rush teams that will slow the pace, but Kansas State has a significant advantage at quarterback. KSU’s senior QB Skylar Thompson returns after injuries ended his 2020 campaign, while Stanford tries to replace a two-year starter in Davis Mills. Also, KSU RB Deuce Vaughn is coming off an All-American season as a true freshman last year. I’ll take Thompson’s experience and Vaughn’s ability to move the chains in a fairly even matchup.

Georgia @ #3 Clemson, 6:30 PM CT, ABC

Pick: Over 24.5 Total 1H (+105 DK)

The best game of the weekend will feature D.J. Uiagalelei’s starting debut for the Tigers, while J.T. Daniels looks to build on some late-season success in 2020. These offenses are capable of fireworks, and I think they’ll both come out firing. Both squads are relatively young on defense, which should allow each QB to execute a script and score early.

6 LSU @ UCLA, 7:30 PM CT, FOX

Pick: UCLA ML (+120 DK)

UCLA dismantled a suspect Hawaii team last week, and there’s something to be said for having a game under your belt. RB Zach Charbonnet looked unstoppable last week, and LSU isn’t overly formidable in the front seven. The Tigers have been practicing in Houston in the wake of Hurricane Ida and will start sophomore QB Max Thompson. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson wasn’t sharp last week, and LSU’s star-studded secondary should persuade Chip Kelly to feature the running game. Under 65 is another solid pick in this one.

Tease of the Week (+160) (6-point teaser)

Michigan (-11) v. Western Michigan

Oklahoma (-25) v. Tulane

Cincinnati (-17) v. Miami OH**

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Levi's Weekly College Football Week 0 and NFL Future Picks https://thecityoffcampus.fireside.fm/articles/levi-s-weekly-college-football-week-0-and-nfl-future-picks Sat, 28 Aug 2021 14:00:00 -0400 sammysommerfeld17@gmail.com 6c84c1fc-1d34-4389-930d-6e127d87de1e Weekly Sports Picks By Levi Lorenz Hi all, my name is Levi, and I’m excited for the opportunity to give some sports gambling picks for The City: Off Campus this Fall.

I’m a pre-law senior here at the University of Iowa and spend a lot of free time either watching sports or researching potential action on sports that I’ll later watch. Nothing I say will persuade any of you to take these picks, but I’ll focus primarily on NFL spreads, totals, and props while mixing in some baseball and college football as well.

I’d like to think that after a few weeks, my record will speak for itself. In the very likely event that it doesn’t, fade me. We’re all just trying to make a little money, right? What better opportunity than Week 0 of the 2021 college football season. Let’s ride!

Hawaii v UCLA (-18). Aug. 28th, 2:30 PM CT, ESPN

Pick: Under 68 (-105 Draftkings)

In most cases, life is too short to bet the under. When the total is just shy of ten touchdowns, you have to think about it. In this case, you should take it.

The Rainbow Warriors of Hawaii return most of a defense that conceded just 14 points to Houston in the New Mexico Bowl last season. They held the Cougars’ offense to 307 total yards (100 fewer than season average) and snagged three interceptions in that game. On the flip side, QB Chevan Cordeiro struggled to complete pass attempts last season but made up for it with his feet.

The Bruins are led by QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson who appears ready to make a statement in the PAC-12 this year. UCLA will definitely put up points, but it’s hard to expect 43.5 against an experienced defense in its first real game action of the year. Look for Hawaii to slow tempo if they can get a couple of early stops and UCLA to rest starters in the fourth quarter of a blowout prior to a matchup with LSU next week.

UConn v Fresno State (-27.5). Aug. 28th, 1:00 PM CT, CBSSN

Pick: Fresno State -27.5 (-110 Draftkings)

This one is pretty simple. UConn was one of three FBS teams to not play a single game last season, and Fresno State returns 20 starters from a team that led the Mountain West in total offense.

Senior QB Jake Haener completed 65% of his passes for over 2,000 yards and 14 touchdowns in only six games last season, and the Bulldogs also return RB Ronnie Rivers who accounted for over 500 yards and seven touchdowns. UConn, on the other hand, has yet to establish who will take the majority of snaps. If only they had a year to figure it out. Fresno State shouldn’t have any trouble on Saturday.

NFL Future Picks

Corey Davis, WR New York Jets, OVER 4.5 TD’s (-115 Draftkings)

Before selecting QB Zach Wilson with the second overall pick in late April, the New York Jets GM Joe Douglas signed a big-body receiver that is fast enough to stretch the field and has the catch radius to haul in contested redzone passes. As a Titan last season, Davis finished with 984 yards and five scores as the second option behind A.J. Brown undoubtedly appears to be Wilson’s favorite target through two preseason games. With Wilson under center, Davis has seen a 55% target share, which should translate to more than enough TD opportunities. Rookie WR Elijah Moore is getting buzz for his big-play ability, but he and Wilson have yet to share the preseason field. If anything, Moore’s vertical prowess will require attention from safeties that could often leave Davis in single coverage.

Chris Jones, DE KC Chiefs, OVER 8 Sacks (-110 Draftkings)

Chris Jones has been the best defensive player in the NFL, not named Aaron Donald over the past two years. The thing is, his explicit role hasn’t been to rush the quarterback… until this year. Jones has primarily played as an inside D-tackle in Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, but offseason acquisitions and young developmental projects have kicked Jones out to the edge. As a DT, Jones got to the quarterback 7.5 times last year, his lowest output since 2017 (15.5 in 2018, 9 in 2019). Given that teams will likely need to throw the ball to keep up with Patrick Mahomes, Jones should thrive as the weak side rusher on obvious passing downs. I can’t imagine lower pressure rates from Jones when his primary goal will be getting to the quarterback. This one could hit before the Chiefs bye in Week 12.

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