Week 4 record: (7-8-1 +.15u) YTD: 26-21-1 (54%)
Note: All CFB and Prop plays are 1u, +money teasers/parlays are .5u.
Had a rough go at it last week but still managed to finish in the green. We’re on to the best CFB slate of the year this week headlined by the biggest game in Kinnick Stadium since 1985. Let’s have a weekend.
3 Iowa (-1.5) vs. #4 Penn State, 3:00 PM CT, FOX -110
I’m tempted to emotionally hedge this game with the PSU moneyline, but I’d rather be able to face myself in the mirror. Iowa’s offense looked dynamic for the first time last week and that defense is approaching an all-time turnover margin. It will be interesting to see who follows Jahan Dotson but Riley Moss and Matt Hankins are both playing at an elite level. Hawks by at least two (or 37, again).
21 Texas vs. #6 Oklahoma (OVER 63.5), 11:00 AM CT, ESPN -110
Had Steve Sarkisian started Casey Thompson over Hudson Card out of camp, we could be talking about an undefeated Longhorns team with real playoff aspirations. Bijan Robinson is averaging over 6 yards/carry, more striking though is the 16.7 yards/reception. Kansas State’s Deuce Vaughn caught 10 balls for 104 yards last week and singlehandedly kept that game close. We know what Oklahoma’s offense can do, and I’m expecting another Red River shootout.
9 Michigan (-3) vs. Nebraska, 6:30 PM CT, ABC -110
I’m not sure why Vegas hates the Wolverines but I wont complain. Cade McNamara proved competent through the air last week and this Nebraska defense shouldn’t be in the same conversation as the Badgers. Take the better team and enjoy your Saturday evening.
20 Florida (-24.5 1H) vs. Vanderbilt, 11:00 AM CT, SECN -110
Sometimes you just gotta lay the points when a dangerous offense plays (quite literally) one of the worst P5 teams in a decade.
CFB ML Parlay: Michigan State/Georgia Tech/Wisconsin/USC (+372)
NFL Props Plays
Hunter Renfrow OVER 4.5 recs (-105)
Deebo Samuel OVER 62.5 rec yds (-115)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 51.5 rush yds (-115)
Tom Brady OVER 2.5 pass TDs (+115)
Joe Burrow OVER 270.5 pass yds (-115)
Austin Ekeler OVER 4.5 recs (-125)
Zach Wilson OVER 21.5 comps (-125)
A.J. Brown OVER 4.5 recs (-125)
Chicago Bears (+5) vs. Oakland Raiders, 3:05 PM CT, CBS -110
We’re far enough into the season that spreads are starting to make sense, but I’m not so sure about this one. The Chargers shut down Derek Carr and co. last week and I think that Bill Lazor will keep gradually opening the playbook for Justin Fields. The Raiders have struggled in the play-action game, and that’s arguably been how Fields has found the most success. If Chicago’s O-Line can hold off Maxx Crosby, they have a chance to win this one straight up.
KC Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (OVER 56), SNF 7:20 PM CT, NBC -110
The Chiefs match up with Buffalo’s defense well, and I think they find a way to cover 2.5 here. That said, their defense has been historically bad through four games. Josh Allen should have no problem moving the ball through the air, and this Chiefs offense has remarkably turned into one of the most efficient units in recent memory. If the Bills stack the box to combat the run, Tyreek Hill is always down there somewhere. If not, CEH will stay hot. I expect both teams to hit the 30-point mark on Sunday night.
GB Packers (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 12:00 PM CT, FOX -110
Joe Burrow has looked good and Ja’Marr Chase is turning out to be everything Bengals fans were hoping for. That won’t matter this week, though. Aaron Rodgers has covered in three straight since that week 1 loss and this feels like it should be closer to five.